{ "forecast_date": "2026-09-18", "deadline": "2026-12-18T23:59:59-05:00", "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-18T12:00:49Z", "reviewed_through": "2026-09-30T12:08:52Z", "rules": [ "Probabilities are rough subjective judgments, not market prices or fitted estimates. Events overlap and are correlated; they do not sum to 100%.", "Only actions after the as-of date count. Existing announcements or promises alone do not resolve a forecast positively.", "Preserve these forecasts unchanged. Record updates and eventual resolutions separately with dated public evidence.", "Absence of accessible evidence is not proof that a private action did not happen. Forecasts are deliberately about public announcements, documents or observable conduct.", "A forecast outcome tests the stated behavioral expectation. It does not establish the underlying motive; several motives produce the same behavior." ], "camps": [ { "id": "frontier_labs", "name": "Frontier labs: Anthropic and OpenAI", "predictions": [ { "id": "LAB-1", "probability": 0.75, "claim": "At least one of Anthropic or OpenAI publicly establishes a named arrangement for embedded external evaluation with concrete access and disclosure terms.", "resolution": "An agreement, published terms or confirmation that access is operating counts. Repeating the September promise does not." }, { "id": "LAB-2", "probability": 0.85, "claim": "Both companies launch or substantially expand paid model or agent products before binding industry-wide pacing restrictions take effect.", "resolution": "A public new release or substantial expansion at each company, after September 18 and before any binding industry-wide pacing regime. This is compatible with their stated proposals and is not itself evidence of hypocrisy." } ] }, { "id": "expansion_companies", "name": "Expansion businesses: Nvidia and Meta", "predictions": [ { "id": "EXP-1", "probability": 0.75, "claim": "Nvidia announces a new funded initiative, product or government partnership for AI security, monitoring or defensive use without endorsing a general frontier slowdown.", "resolution": "A new identifiable programme, resource commitment, product or agreement counts. A speech about engineering safety alone does not." }, { "id": "EXP-2", "probability": 0.8, "claim": "Meta expands public access to an agent or advanced model and issues a new public objection to general pacing requirements.", "resolution": "Both a new substantive availability/capability expansion and a new attributable policy statement or lobbying position must occur. Existing Muse availability and the August essay are the baseline." } ] }, { "id": "evaluators", "name": "Independent evaluators, including METR", "predictions": [ { "id": "EVAL-1", "probability": 0.7, "claim": "METR or another named frontier evaluator publishes new formal proposals or agreement terms requiring incident disclosure, sustained access or freedom to publish findings.", "resolution": "A concrete new protocol, contract term, standards submission or policy proposal counts; generic calls for transparency do not." }, { "id": "EVAL-2", "probability": 0.6, "claim": "A named independent evaluator publishes new empirical results that narrow a prominent claim about dangerous capability, autonomous research or productivity.", "resolution": "The report must identify a measured limitation or place a named system below a stated risk threshold. Merely saying evidence is uncertain, or republishing an older reassuring result, does not count." } ] }, { "id": "pause_campaigners", "name": "Pause campaigners and organised safety advocacy", "predictions": [ { "id": "PAUSE-1", "probability": 0.75, "claim": "A new formal coalition or joint campaign joins an AI-pause organisation with a labour, religious or child-protection organisation around restrictions on advanced AI development.", "resolution": "A new co-signed intervention or organised joint campaign counts. Recounting attendance at the September 15 assembly does not." }, { "id": "PAUSE-2", "probability": 0.55, "claim": "At least one materially qualified or corrected technical claim is subsequently repeated in a stronger form by two identifiable pause-campaign leaders or organisations.", "resolution": "Preserve the primary clarification and two later statements. The discrepancy must concern autonomy, actual harm or imminence, with no new supporting evidence. Conditional concern about possible future harm does not count; random followers do not count. This tests transmission accuracy, not clinical delusion or intentional lying." } ] }, { "id": "trump_sacks", "name": "Trump, Sacks and the administration's acceleration position", "predictions": [ { "id": "ADMIN-1", "probability": 0.8, "claim": "The administration does not endorse legally binding general limits on the pace of frontier training or model releases by the deadline.", "resolution": "Targeted restrictions on particular harmful uses, actors or foreign access do not count as general pacing. An explicit official endorsement of a binding general cap resolves this forecast negatively." }, { "id": "ADMIN-2", "probability": 0.75, "claim": "The administration announces a new concrete AI-security, infrastructure or government-access initiative with industry partners.", "resolution": "A signed agreement, order, procurement decision or funded programme counts. A promise of American dominance or an unresourced speech does not." } ] }, { "id": "economic_populists", "name": "Economic populists: Sanders and Warren", "predictions": [ { "id": "POP-1", "probability": 0.65, "claim": "Sanders or Warren advances a new legislative amendment, package or formal platform connecting AI governance to worker compensation, working hours, bargaining power or ownership.", "resolution": "The action must add a provision, legislative vehicle or joint commitment beyond the existing September proposals. Repeating the current workweek bill in an interview does not count." }, { "id": "POP-2", "probability": 0.6, "claim": "A national labour or consumer organisation newly endorses an advanced-AI pause or permission requirement promoted by this political camp.", "resolution": "A formal new organisational endorsement of the development restriction counts. General support for worker protection or safer chatbots is insufficient." } ] }, { "id": "pragmatic_oversight", "name": "Pragmatic oversight: Shapiro and bipartisan legislators", "predictions": [ { "id": "PRAG-1", "probability": 0.75, "claim": "A congressional committee holds an AI oversight hearing or advances legislation specifically addressing incident reporting, independent evaluation or development security.", "resolution": "A held hearing, markup or recorded committee advancement counts. Another letter asking for action does not." }, { "id": "PRAG-2", "probability": 0.6, "claim": "Pennsylvania adds a binding AI procurement, operational-safety or data-centre condition while continuing to back a named new AI investment or deployment.", "resolution": "Both a new enforceable condition and a new identifiable state-backed investment/deployment must appear. A speech alone is insufficient; the previous August data-centre order is the baseline." } ] }, { "id": "chinese_open_builders", "name": "Chinese open-model developers: DeepSeek, Moonshot and Z.ai", "predictions": [ { "id": "OPEN-1", "probability": 0.85, "claim": "At least one of DeepSeek, Moonshot or Z.ai releases new downloadable model weights or general agent tooling explicitly promoted as improving cost, access or performance.", "resolution": "A usable new release after September 18 counts. A benchmark tease, an old release gaining attention or an announcement with no accessible artifact does not." }, { "id": "OPEN-2", "probability": 0.8, "claim": "None of these three developers publicly joins a binding, independently verifiable international agreement limiting frontier training or release cadence by the deadline.", "resolution": "A general statement supporting safety or international cooperation is not such an agreement. Public accession to concrete reciprocal limits with a verification mechanism resolves this forecast negatively." } ] } ], "methods": { "three-estimates-v1": { "model": "anthropic/claude-opus-5", "model_label": "Claude Opus 5", "reasoning_effort": "high", "sample_count": 3, "aggregation": "median" } }, "updates": [ { "forecast_id": "LAB-1", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.64, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.63, 0.64, 0.68 ], "note": "Anthropic has named Accenture, but its September 18 announcement still leaves operating and disclosure standards unsettled. That announcement belongs to the baseline. A new arrangement or confirmation of operating access needs to satisfy the concrete test; another promise alone is insufficient.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/accenture-embedded-evaluation", "label": "Anthropic’s September 18 evaluator partnership" }, { "url": "https://metr.org/blog/2026-07-28-investigating-ai-propensities-after-incidents/", "label": "METR’s investigation-access proposal" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "LAB-2", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.93, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.93, 0.92, 0.94 ], "note": "Anthropic explicitly plans to continue training and releasing models alongside outside evaluation, and OpenAI is expanding its paid offerings. The estimate rises because each company has several routes to a qualifying expansion before a binding industry-wide pacing regime takes effect.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/accenture-embedded-evaluation", "label": "Anthropic’s September 18 evaluator partnership" }, { "url": "https://openai.com/index/gpt-6-astra/", "label": "OpenAI’s September 3 release" }, { "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/promoting-advanced-artificial-intelligence-innovation-and-security/", "label": "The administration’s voluntary AI-security framework" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "EXP-1", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.93, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.9, 0.93, 0.93 ], "note": "Nvidia's existing CrowdStrike partnership demonstrates a route from safety concerns to defensive products. A new security product, funded programme or government agreement would qualify; the existing partnership cannot count again. The estimate concerns further identifiable activity, not endorsement of a common slowdown.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia-crowdstrike-fal-con-2026/", "label": "Nvidia and CrowdStrike’s security announcement" }, { "url": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/jensen-huang-dreamforce/", "label": "Huang’s September 15 remarks" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "EXP-2", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.72, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.7, 0.74, 0.72 ], "note": "Meta has announced further Muse expansion, but delivering it and issuing a new objection to general pacing are separate requirements. Estimating the second event conditional on the first lowers the combined probability. Neither the September launch nor the earlier policy essay counts as a new action.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/introducing-muse-personal-ai-agent/", "label": "Meta’s Muse launch and plans" }, { "url": "https://www.meta.com/thefutureisforeveryone/", "label": "Zuckerberg’s earlier essay" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "EVAL-1", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.86, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.85, 0.89, 0.86 ], "note": "METR has funding and an existing access protocol, while Anthropic is negotiating further evaluator arrangements. A concrete new proposal has more routes to fulfilment than a completed oversight agreement. This predicts proposals and terms being published, not those rights necessarily being secured.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://metr.org/blog/2026-07-28-investigating-ai-propensities-after-incidents/", "label": "METR’s investigation-access proposal" }, { "url": "https://metr.org/blog/2026-08-14-funding-update/", "label": "METR’s funding update" }, { "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/accenture-embedded-evaluation", "label": "Anthropic’s September 18 evaluator partnership" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "EVAL-2", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.92, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.94, 0.92, 0.92 ], "note": "The revised estimate gives more weight to the number of independent evaluators and the breadth of qualifying empirical findings over three months. A result must still narrow a prominent capability claim or meet the stated threshold test; a routine failed benchmark task is not automatically enough. No measured publication-frequency base rate underlies this estimate.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://metr.org/research/", "label": "METR’s research record" }, { "url": "https://metr.org/blog/2026-06-26-gpt-5-6-sol/", "label": "METR’s June evaluation and access disclosure" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "PAUSE-1", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.84, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.85, 0.82, 0.84 ], "note": "The Pro-Human Assembly connected pause advocates with labour, religious and child-protection organisations. That network supports a further joint intervention, but shared attendance and the existing coalition are baseline. A new commitment to restrictions on advanced development is the event being forecast.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://humancon.org/agenda/", "label": "The Pro-Human Assembly agenda" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "PAUSE-2", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.35, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.35, 0.44, 0.28 ], "note": "A documented chain involving the same claim and two identifiable leaders is a narrower event than heightened rhetoric. The estimate allows a preserved clarification from before the forecast, followed by two new stronger repetitions; the original wording left that timing point open. Continuing monitoring is assumed. This tests public statements, not dishonesty or mental state.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://metr.org/blog/2026-07-28-investigating-ai-propensities-after-incidents/", "label": "METR’s investigation-access proposal" }, { "url": "https://humancon.org/agenda/", "label": "The Pro-Human Assembly agenda" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "ADMIN-1", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.96, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.96, 0.96, 0.97 ], "note": "The administration's existing order uses a voluntary developer framework and excludes mandatory licensing or preclearance. Its public position favours continued competition. The higher estimate concerns rejection of general binding pacing, while leaving room for targeted safeguards and international safety discussions.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/promoting-advanced-artificial-intelligence-innovation-and-security/", "label": "The administration’s voluntary AI-security framework" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "ADMIN-2", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.96, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.96, 0.96, 0.96 ], "note": "Government-industry AI security and access work already has an executive framework. The forecast allows a new agreement, procurement decision, order or funded programme, so several kinds of concrete follow-through qualify. Repeating an earlier directive or announcing an unfunded intention does not.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/promoting-advanced-artificial-intelligence-innovation-and-security/", "label": "The administration’s voluntary AI-security framework" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "POP-1", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.77, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.77, 0.78, 0.72 ], "note": "Sanders's workweek proposal and the announced Sanders–Casar bill establish an active policy agenda. The estimate concerns an additional worker-related provision, vehicle or formal commitment from Sanders or Warren. Repeating either existing proposal would leave the forecast open.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-takano-reintroduce-bill-to-move-toward-32-hour-workweek-ensure-americas-workers-benefit-from-ai-and-automation/", "label": "Sanders’s workweek proposal and endorsements" }, { "url": "https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-casar-introduce-legislation-to-ban-artificial-superintelligence-and-temporarily-pause-advanced-ai-development/", "label": "The announced Sanders–Casar proposal" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "POP-2", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.42, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.42, 0.47, 0.28 ], "note": "Labour endorsements of the shorter-workweek bill concern how productivity gains are shared. They do not commit those organisations to restricting model development. The revised estimate separates sympathy for worker protection from a new formal endorsement of a pause or permission requirement.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-takano-reintroduce-bill-to-move-toward-32-hour-workweek-ensure-americas-workers-benefit-from-ai-and-automation/", "label": "Sanders’s workweek proposal and endorsements" }, { "url": "https://humancon.org/agenda/", "label": "The Pro-Human Assembly agenda" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "PRAG-1", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.91, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.91, 0.9, 0.91 ], "note": "A bipartisan group has identified existing oversight legislation and pressed for action. One qualifying hearing or committee advancement is enough; enactment is not required. The estimate includes both chambers, although no specific forthcoming qualifying hearing was verified in this review.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://beyer.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=9218", "label": "The bipartisan House letter" }, { "url": "https://www.pa.gov/governor/newsroom/2026-press-releases/gov--shapiro-s-remarks-as-prepared-for-delivery-at-the-ai-horizo", "label": "Shapiro’s September 17 remarks" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "PRAG-2", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.29, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.29, 0.27, 0.29 ], "note": "Pennsylvania's August data-centre order is already in the baseline. Another enforceable condition and a newly identified investment or deployment must both appear. Estimating those requirements separately lowers the combined probability. The U.S. House recess supplies no evidence about Pennsylvania's legislature.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.pa.gov/governor/newsroom/2026-press-releases/gov--shapiro-s-remarks-as-prepared-for-delivery-at-the-ai-horizo", "label": "Shapiro’s September 17 remarks" }, { "url": "https://www.pa.gov/governor/topics/data-centers", "label": "Pennsylvania’s existing data-centre requirements" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "OPEN-1", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.98, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.98, 0.98, 0.97 ], "note": "Moonshot and DeepSeek have recently released usable weights and supporting tools. This forecast needs one qualifying new release from any of three developers, rather than a particular next-generation breakthrough. The high estimate is a judgement about continued activity, not a fitted release-frequency model.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.kimi.com/news/kimi-k3-open-source", "label": "Moonshot’s July release" }, { "url": "https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash", "label": "DeepSeek’s official model repository" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "OPEN-2", "date": "2026-09-19", "status": "open", "probability": 0.975, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.975, 0.98, 0.97 ], "note": "The agreement must impose concrete reciprocal limits with independent verification, and a named developer must publicly join it. General safety declarations or exploratory talks do not meet that test. The higher estimate reflects the demanding agreement required within three months, not proof that no private negotiations exist.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier", "label": "Amodei’s pacing proposal" }, { "url": "https://www.kimi.com/news/kimi-k3-open-source", "label": "Moonshot’s July release" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "LAB-1", "date": "2026-09-20", "status": "open", "note": "Anthropic named Accenture on September 18, before the period counted by this forecast. That announcement cannot fulfil the prediction. The evaluator letter published that day seeks access, editorial control and protection against retaliation, underscoring that naming an inspector and giving it enforceable freedoms are separate steps. A new qualifying arrangement or confirmation of operating access is still required; the estimate is unchanged.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/accenture-embedded-evaluation", "label": "Anthropic’s September 18 partnership announcement" }, { "url": "https://aievaluatorforum.org/initiatives/embedded-evaluation-letter", "label": "The September 18 minimum-conditions letter" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "EVAL-1", "date": "2026-09-20", "status": "open", "note": "The AI Evaluator Forum’s September 18 letter specifies editorial control, sustained access and protections against retaliation. Its date excludes it from this forecast. The Forum also plans further work on embedded-evaluator standards, without a publication date. These are concrete subjects for negotiation, but no new qualifying publication after September 18 was verified. The estimate is unchanged.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://aievaluatorforum.org/initiatives/embedded-evaluation-letter", "label": "The minimum-conditions letter" }, { "url": "https://aievaluatorforum.org/path-ahead", "label": "The Forum’s planned standards work" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "ADMIN-2", "date": "2026-09-20", "status": "open", "note": "Trump’s September 19 promise of an AI Force falls inside the forecast period, but the statement names no industry partner and supplies no budget, signed agreement, order or procurement decision. It strengthens the evidence of intent without establishing the concrete action required here. The forecast remains open at the same estimate.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.trumpstruth.org/statuses/41808", "label": "Archive of Trump’s September 19 AI Force statement" }, { "url": "https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2101420421992353865", "label": "Sacks’s September 19 defence of expansion" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "ADMIN-1", "date": "2026-09-21", "status": "open", "note": "The U.S. proposed a warning channel with China for serious AI incidents on September 20. China confirmed talks without accepting those terms. This is a specific form of safety cooperation, not an endorsement of binding limits on training or releases. Politico’s new account of June restrictions on Anthropic also shows that this administration has stopped an individual product; that earlier, company-specific action does not meet the general-pacing test.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-treasurys-bessent-chinas-launch-050623893.html", "label": "Bessent’s September 20 incident-notification proposal" }, { "url": "https://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/leaders/20260921/2d128235a5d3411f88f7cae658183590/c.html", "label": "China’s official account of the talks" }, { "url": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/09/20/anthropic-white-house-ai-01085212", "label": "Politico’s September 20 account of the June Fable restrictions" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "OPEN-1", "date": "2026-09-21", "status": "met", "note": "Z.ai published ZCode’s agent runtime and desktop, web and command-line source under Apache-2.0 on September 20. The official announcement promotes wider source access and community scrutiny. This is newly downloadable agent tooling for an existing product, not new model weights: the repository includes runtime files and build instructions, rather than only a future promise. It meets the forecast’s tooling-and-access branch. The release followed a privacy complaint; the outcome does not establish the commercial motive proposed in the essay.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://github.com/zai-org/ZCode/commit/872ad960de7ec172591f7e1952f7849229f94521", "label": "Z.ai’s September 20 source release" }, { "url": "https://github.com/zai-org/ZCode/blob/872ad960de7ec172591f7e1952f7849229f94521/README.en.md", "label": "Released runtime and build instructions" }, { "url": "https://x.com/zcode_ai/status/2101844704933621971", "label": "ZCode’s announcement of source access and security remediation" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "LAB-1", "date": "2026-09-23", "status": "open", "probability": 0.85, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.82, 0.88, 0.85 ], "note": "METR’s September 22 report describes operating access at Anthropic and a contract allowing disclosure of access and redaction facts without company consent. A separate team assessed AI research inside the company with elevated access. This moves beyond a promise to admit outsiders and raises our estimate that a named embedded arrangement with specified terms will be established. The report does not settle the continuing scope or terms of that separate team’s work, so the prediction remains open. “Embedded” was not precisely defined in the original test; this review does not add a requirement of permanent physical residence.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://metr.org/blog/2026-09-22-claude-opus-5-5/", "label": "METR’s September 22 evaluation and access disclosure" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "LAB-2", "date": "2026-09-23", "status": "met", "note": "On September 22, Anthropic released paid Claude Opus 5.5 and OpenAI released paid GPT-6 Sol and Luna through its API and subscription products. Both are new releases after the September 18 forecast, before any binding industry-wide pacing regime took effect. They satisfy the two-company test. Continued releases are compatible with the companies’ stated proposals for future controls and do not themselves establish hypocrisy.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/claude-opus-5-5", "label": "Anthropic’s September 22 Opus 5.5 release" }, { "url": "https://community.openai.com/t/announcing-gpt-6-sol-and-gpt-6-luna/1399925", "label": "OpenAI’s September 22 GPT-6 Sol and Luna release" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "EVAL-2", "date": "2026-09-23", "status": "met", "note": "METR’s September 22 assessment tested Claude Opus 5.5 on five difficult AI-research tasks. It reported incremental improvements over Fable 5.1 alongside weaknesses in long-horizon work and open-ended research judgment, concluding that full automation of AI research was unlikely for this model. Those new measurements satisfy the forecast’s measured-limitation test. This was a research-capability assessment, not a finding of general safety or compliance with a formal risk threshold; Anthropic’s review rights over the summary are disclosed in the report.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://metr.org/blog/2026-09-22-claude-opus-5-5/", "label": "METR’s September 22 evaluation and access disclosure" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "EVAL-1", "date": "2026-09-23", "status": "open", "note": "METR’s September 22 report describes rights to disclose facts about access and redaction without Anthropic’s consent, while Anthropic could review and edit the substantive summary. The published terms do not establish a requirement for sustained access, incident disclosure or freedom to publish substantive findings. The forecast therefore remains open. Fresh replacement estimates failed factual review, so the previous estimate remains in place.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://metr.org/blog/2026-09-22-claude-opus-5-5/", "label": "METR’s September 22 contractual disclosure note" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "EXP-2", "date": "2026-09-24", "status": "open", "note": "Meta’s September 23 announcement says Muse can now operate Mac applications with permission; Spotify also documents a live integration. That establishes a new capability expansion after the forecast began. The test separately requires a new attributable objection to general pacing, which these product announcements do not provide. The forecast remains open at its previous estimate; the fresh sampling pass did not clear review.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://about.fb.com/ltam/news/2026/09/todo-lo-que-anunciamos-en-meta-connect-2026/", "label": "Meta’s September 23 Connect recap" }, { "url": "https://newsroom.spotify.com/2026-09-23/spotify-meta-muse-agent/", "label": "Spotify’s September 23 Muse integration" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "POP-1", "date": "2026-09-24", "status": "open", "probability": 0.58, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.58, 0.65, 0.45 ], "note": "The full Sanders–Casar bill introduced September 23 creates a proposed AI regulator and protects whistleblowers, but contains no working-hours, compensation, collective-bargaining or worker-ownership provision. The earlier shorter-workweek proposal already addressed workers’ gains and cannot count again. The new text shows the development restrictions and specified worker benefits proceeding on separate legislative tracks, reducing this estimate from 77% to 58%. A later amendment, new vehicle or formal joint commitment could still satisfy the original test before December 18.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.sanders.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/Ban-Artificial-Superintelligence-Act.pdf", "label": "Full September 23 Sanders–Casar bill" }, { "url": "https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-casar-introduce-legislation-to-create-new-federal-agency-to-ban-artificial-superintelligence-pause-advanced-ai-development/", "label": "September 23 introduction announcement" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "EXP-2", "date": "2026-09-25", "status": "open", "note": "Zuckerberg again rejects industry-wide coordination in Joanna Stern’s newly published interview. Her September 24 account says she recorded it September 18, the forecast’s excluded starting day. Meta’s subsequent Mac capability expansion is established, but the original test does not settle whether first publication or the recorded statement’s date governs this case. We preserve that ambiguity and the previous 72% estimate rather than count a later publication as an unambiguous new action. A clearly dated subsequent objection would settle the remaining component.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://thenewthings.com/p/exclusive-mark-zuckerberg-interview", "label": "Joanna Stern’s September 24 publication and stated interview date" }, { "url": "https://about.fb.com/ltam/news/2026/09/todo-lo-que-anunciamos-en-meta-connect-2026/", "label": "Meta’s September 23 announcement of available Mac capability" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "EVAL-1", "date": "2026-09-26", "status": "met", "note": "CeSIA, a frontier-model evaluator for the European Commission, co-authored the new UN General Assembly proposal with The Future Society and AI Safety Connect. It requires prompt public incident reporting, auditor control of investigation scope and independent publication of findings. These specific duties meet the original formal-policy-proposal test; acceptance by a lab or government was not required. The statement is first verified here on September 26. It refers to the countries’ human-control call this week and last year’s Red Lines launch, placing it within the September 21–25 assembly week, after the forecast began; the page supplies no exact publication timestamp. This is a proposal, not an enforceable agreement.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.aisafetyconnect.org/statement2026", "label": "New UN General Assembly proposal on independent audits and incident reporting" }, { "url": "https://cesia.org/en/our-work/", "label": "CeSIA’s frontier-model evaluation role" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "EVAL-1", "date": "2026-09-26", "status": "met", "note": "Attribution clarification: CeSIA, The Future Society and AI Safety Connect authored the proposal during the UN General Assembly; the assembly itself did not issue it. The earlier entry’s wording identified the occasion and should not imply UN authorship or adoption. The outcome remains met: a named frontier evaluator co-authored specific reporting and publication requirements, satisfying the original formal-proposal test.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.aisafetyconnect.org/statement2026", "label": "CeSIA and partners’ proposal on independent audits and incident reporting" }, { "url": "https://cesia.org/en/our-work/", "label": "CeSIA’s frontier-model evaluation work" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "PAUSE-1", "date": "2026-09-27", "status": "open", "probability": 0.7, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.72, 0.65, 0.7 ], "note": "The September 15 assembly remains the only meeting of pause advocates with labour, religious and child-protection organisations in the record, and it cannot count. Since then Senator Sanders and Representative Casar have introduced their development ban without listing any organisational backer, the joint policy proposal published during the U.N. General Assembly week came from AI-governance groups alone, and a circulating claim that major unions had endorsed the ban proved to rest on another bill’s endorsement list. A co-signed campaign remains possible over the remaining eleven weeks, but less time is left and no organisation has yet moved.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-casar-introduce-legislation-to-create-new-federal-agency-to-ban-artificial-superintelligence-pause-advanced-ai-development/", "label": "Sanders and Casar’s September 23 bill announcement" }, { "url": "https://pauseai.info/", "label": "PauseAI’s current campaign page" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "POP-2", "date": "2026-09-27", "status": "open", "probability": 0.27, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.15, 0.27, 0.3 ], "note": "The Sanders–Casar bill introduced on September 23 is the camp’s concrete pause and permission measure, and its announcement lists no national labour or consumer organisation. The labour endorsements in the record belong to the shorter-workweek bill, and a search summary attributing union endorsements to the ban was checked and rejected. The organisations that attended the September 15 assembly give a route to endorsement, but the test requires a formal endorsement of the development restriction itself.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.sanders.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/Ban-Artificial-Superintelligence-Act.pdf", "label": "Text of the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act" }, { "url": "https://www.sanders.senate.gov/media/press-releases/", "label": "Senator Sanders’s press releases" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "ADMIN-1", "date": "2026-09-27", "status": "open", "note": "The United States and China have now agreed a dialogue on advanced AI, due to meet by November, and a channel for reporting incidents; neither government’s text limits training or releases. On September 26 President Trump said the United States “is not going to be putting on brakes” and would rather not integrate its AI work with China’s. Both developments are consistent with this forecast; as an absence forecast it cannot resolve before the deadline, and the fresh estimates gave no reason to change the published probability.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-advances-a-fair-and-reciprocal-relationship-with-china-while-hosting-historic-state-visit/", "label": "White House fact sheet on Xi’s state visit" }, { "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/26/trump-rejects-combining-us-china-ai-efforts", "label": "Al Jazeera on Trump’s September 26 remarks" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "OPEN-2", "date": "2026-09-27", "status": "open", "note": "The new U.S.-China dialogue and incident channel are arrangements between governments; they name no company and impose no verifiable limit on training or release cadence. DeepSeek, Moonshot and Z.ai have not joined any such agreement. The forecast remains open until the deadline.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-advances-a-fair-and-reciprocal-relationship-with-china-while-hosting-historic-state-visit/", "label": "White House fact sheet on Xi’s state visit" }, { "url": "https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ziliao_674904/zt_674979/dnzt_674981/xjpdmgjxgsfw/zxxx_159164/202609/t20260926_12031616.shtml", "label": "China’s foreign-ministry eight-point consensus (Chinese)" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "PRAG-1", "date": "2026-09-27", "status": "open", "note": "A Senate homeland-security subcommittee chaired by Josh Hawley has scheduled a September 30 hearing on rogue AI agents, according to a legislative news service. A scheduled hearing does not satisfy the test. If it is held and addresses how developers secure their systems or report incidents, it would; we will judge its actual scope. The House Energy and Commerce chair has signalled that major AI legislation is unlikely to advance before 2027, which bears on the legislative route but not on hearings.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://legis1.com/news/rogue-ai-threat-senate-panel-will-examine", "label": "Legis1 on the scheduled Senate hearing" }, { "url": "https://time.com/article/2026/09/25/ai-congress-regulation-safety-democrats-republicans/", "label": "TIME on the congressional outlook" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "PAUSE-1", "date": "2026-09-27", "status": "open", "probability": 0.7, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.72, 0.65, 0.7 ], "note": "Clarification of the same-day entry, which overstated how widely a false endorsement claim circulated and omitted the earlier estimate. The September 15 assembly remains the only meeting of pause advocates with labour, religious and child-protection organisations in the record, and it cannot count. Since then Senator Sanders and Representative Casar have introduced their development ban without listing any organisational backer, and the joint policy proposal that CeSIA and two partners published during the U.N. General Assembly week came from AI-governance groups alone. With nearly twelve weeks left and no labour, religious or child-protection organisation yet found co-signing a campaign with a pause group, we lower our estimate from 84% to 70%.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.aisafetyconnect.org/statement2026", "label": "CeSIA and partners’ joint policy proposal" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "POP-2", "date": "2026-09-27", "status": "open", "probability": 0.27, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.15, 0.27, 0.3 ], "note": "Clarification of the same-day entry, which omitted the earlier estimate. The Sanders–Casar bill introduced on September 23 is the camp’s concrete pause and permission measure, and its announcement lists no national labour or consumer organisation. The labour endorsements in the record belong to the shorter-workweek bill; an online search summary that attributed union endorsements to the ban was citing another bill’s list of endorsers. The labour organisations that attended the September 15 assembly offer a route to endorsement, but the test requires a formal endorsement of the development restriction itself, and none has appeared, so we lower our estimate from 42% to 27%.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-casar-introduce-legislation-to-create-new-federal-agency-to-ban-artificial-superintelligence-pause-advanced-ai-development/", "label": "Sanders and Casar’s September 23 bill announcement" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "EXP-1", "date": "2026-09-28", "status": "met", "note": "On September 28 Nvidia launched its Open Agent Safety Platform, pairing its OpenShell agent runtime, now broadly available, with Nvidia Sentry, a newly announced design for a monitor running on BlueField-4 networking chips that watches AI agents and can quarantine one that leaves its permitted boundaries. Nvidia gives no general-availability date for Sentry. More than 100 organisations are named as partners, including Anthropic, Microsoft and SpaceXAI. OpenShell was announced in March and cannot count again, but the combined platform, with Sentry and its named partner integrations, is a new identifiable product for AI security and monitoring, which meets the test. Neither the announcement nor Nvidia’s technical account endorses a general frontier slowdown; the technical account instead calls for faster safety research alongside continued development. Nvidia names no funding amount or government partner, which the test does not require. The outcome supports our reading of Nvidia’s commercial position without establishing Huang’s motives.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/open-agent-safety-platform", "label": "Nvidia’s September 28 announcement of the Open Agent Safety Platform" }, { "url": "https://developer.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia-open-agent-safety-platform-a-reference-for-continuous-in-silicon-agent-monitoring/", "label": "Nvidia’s technical description of OpenShell and Sentry" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "EXP-1", "date": "2026-09-28", "status": "met", "note": "Clarification of the same-day entry. Nvidia Sentry is a design without a release date, a monitor that would run on BlueField-4 networking chips; OpenShell, the agent runtime, is available now. OpenShell was announced in March, and Nvidia had already described security partnerships built around it, so neither can count again; the newly launched platform, with the new Sentry design and more than 100 named partners, is a new identifiable product for AI security and monitoring, which meets the test. Neither the announcement nor Nvidia’s technical account endorses a general frontier slowdown; the announcement instead quotes Huang calling for faster safety research. The earlier entry’s claim that the technical account calls for faster safety research alongside continued development, and its treatment of the partner integrations as new, are withdrawn. The outcome supports our reading of Nvidia’s commercial position without establishing Huang’s motives.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/open-agent-safety-platform", "label": "Nvidia’s September 28 announcement of the Open Agent Safety Platform" }, { "url": "https://developer.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia-open-agent-safety-platform-a-reference-for-continuous-in-silicon-agent-monitoring/", "label": "Nvidia’s technical description of OpenShell and Sentry" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "ADMIN-2", "date": "2026-09-30", "status": "met", "note": "On September 29 President Trump and the heads of Google, Anthropic, Meta, xAI and Nvidia, with OpenAI’s president, Greg Brockman, signed the White House Accord on Super Intelligence, which Trump then posted. Each company commits to four layers of AI-security controls: internal monitoring of its models for cyber, biological and chemical threats and against unintended hacking, an internal team to check those controls, an independent external auditor or evaluator, and a board committee that receives the reports. The test counts a signed agreement on AI security with industry partners, and this is one, so the prediction is met. The accord is voluntary: it names no auditor, sets no deadline or duty to publish, and leaves enforcement to no one. It meets the letter of this test without giving the government new powers over the companies.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/117356435739432952", "label": "Trump’s September 29 post of the signed accord" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "LAB-1", "date": "2026-09-30", "status": "open", "probability": 0.73, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.75, 0.73, 0.68 ], "note": "Anthropic and OpenAI both signed the September 29 White House accord, which commits each company to partner with an independent external auditor or evaluator. The accord names no auditor and sets no access or disclosure terms, so signing it does not meet this test, which requires a named arrangement with concrete terms. Two announcements now follow the same pattern: Anthropic’s September 18 Accenture partnership and the accord both name an intention to be audited while leaving access and publication unsettled. Pressure to name an evaluator has grown, but so has the evidence that the companies can satisfy it without stating terms, and 79 days remain. We lower our estimate from 85% to 73%.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/09/30/openai-google-and-meta-pledge-outside-ai-audits-under-voluntary-white-house-deal", "label": "CoinDesk on the accord’s missing enforcement, disclosure and deadline terms" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "ADMIN-1", "date": "2026-09-30", "status": "open", "probability": 0.96, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.96, 0.965, 0.96 ], "note": "The administration’s first formal instrument on the safety of the most capable AI, the September 29 accord, is voluntary and says nothing about the pace of training or releases. Trump called it “morally binding” and praised self-regulation, and Vice President Vance, as reported, told the executives to take the risks seriously rather than ask the government for a regulatory regime. The accord’s remark that it may make sense to codify its steps refers to controls and audits, not to pace. The same day a Quinnipiac poll found 79% of voters putting safety ahead of staying at the forefront, pressure that could matter after a serious incident; but the administration answered that pressure with a pledge the companies wrote for themselves. With 79 days left, we raise our estimate that the administration will not endorse binding general pace limits from 80% to 96%.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.nextgov.com/artificial-intelligence/2026/09/white-house-unveils-super-intelligence-executive-order-and-industry-accord/416325/", "label": "Nextgov on the accord and the renaming order" }, { "url": "https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us09292026_uppi50.pdf", "label": "Quinnipiac University’s September 29 national poll" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "LAB-1", "date": "2026-09-30", "status": "open", "probability": 0.73, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.75, 0.73, 0.68 ], "note": "Clarification of the same-day entry, which blurred Anthropic’s Accenture partnership with the accord. Anthropic and OpenAI both signed the September 29 White House accord, which commits each company to partner with an independent external auditor or evaluator but names none and sets no access or disclosure terms, so signing it does not meet this test. Two announcements now follow the same pattern: Anthropic’s September 18 partnership with Accenture named an evaluator, and the accord promises one, but neither sets out what the evaluator may see or publish. Pressure to name evaluators has grown, but so has the evidence that the companies can answer it without stating terms, and about eleven weeks remain. We lower our estimate from 85% to 73%.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/09/30/openai-google-and-meta-pledge-outside-ai-audits-under-voluntary-white-house-deal", "label": "CoinDesk on the accord’s missing enforcement, disclosure and deadline terms" } ] }, { "forecast_id": "ADMIN-1", "date": "2026-09-30", "status": "open", "probability": 0.96, "method": "three-estimates-v1", "estimates": [ 0.96, 0.965, 0.96 ], "note": "Clarification of the same-day entry, which called the accord the administration’s first formal instrument on the subject and implied a response to a poll published the same day. The September 29 White House accord on the safety of the most capable AI is voluntary and says nothing about the pace of training or releases. Trump praised self-regulation, and Vice President Vance told the executives to take the risks seriously rather than come to the government for a regulatory regime. The accord’s remark that it may make sense to codify its steps refers to controls and audits, not to pace. The same day a Quinnipiac poll found 79% of voters putting safety ahead of staying at the forefront of innovation. Public pressure of that kind is the likeliest route to an endorsement, perhaps after a serious incident, but the administration’s instrument that day was a voluntary pledge with nothing on pace. With about eleven weeks left, we raise our estimate that the administration will not endorse binding general pace limits from 80% to 96%.", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.nextgov.com/artificial-intelligence/2026/09/white-house-unveils-super-intelligence-executive-order-and-industry-accord/416325/", "label": "Nextgov on the accord and Vance’s remarks" }, { "url": "https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us09292026_uppi50.pdf", "label": "Quinnipiac University’s September 29 national poll" } ] } ] }