{ "as_of": "2026-09-14", "kind": "Financing sensitivity calibrated to disclosed scale; not an observed cash-flow forecast", "unit": "USD billions unless a record explicitly states another currency or unit", "scenario": { "annual_revenue": 40, "contribution_margin": 0.4, "development_program": 10, "next_program_months": [ 6, 12 ], "horizon_months": 18, "margin_sensitivity": [ 0.2, 0.4, 0.7 ], "revenue_sensitivity": [ 24, 40, 65 ], "budget_sensitivity": [ 5, 10, 20 ], "basis": { "annual_revenue": "Rounded August 2026 reported OpenAI annualized revenue, not realized full-year revenue. Source openai_run_rate.", "contribution_margin": "Analyst assumption rounded from the 42.6% gross margin implied by reported OpenAI 2025 revenue and cost of revenue. Cash conversion and 2026 margins are unknown.", "development_program": "Analyst scenario rounded from six months of reported OpenAI 2025 R&D expense (19.18 / 2 = 9.59). Portfolio development budget, not one training run or an observed cash bill.", "timing": "Both paths assume two equal development budgets paid at the start of each cycle. The second starts at month 6 or 12. Real development payments are spread over time; their timing is not disclosed.", "contribution": "Annual revenue / 12 times assumed cash contribution margin after serving costs; all allocated to the two budgets. Gross profit is a scale reference, not asserted to equal observed cash receipts.", "sensitivity": "Chosen scenarios, not confidence intervals or estimates for named labs. No probabilities assigned." }, "limitations": [ "Portfolio model: revenue is not attributed to individual model generations.", "Revenue and margin held constant to isolate timing; demand, price, capability and market-share effects of delaying innovation are unknown.", "Only two development budgets; identical total contribution and spending at month 18.", "Excludes overhead, working capital, interest, tax, safety costs, cash on hand, financing already raised and resale value. R&D expense is not cash capex.", "Amount uncovered when second budget starts differs from peak financing, which includes the initial investment.", "Lower funding at a later date does not establish greater lifetime profit or that pacing is necessary." ] }, "labs": [ { "id": "openai_2025", "name": "OpenAI", "period": "2025", "currency": "USD", "unit": "billions", "revenue": 13.07, "cost_of_revenue": 7.5, "rd": 19.18, "selling_marketing": 5.73, "general_administrative": 1.57, "reported_operating_loss": 20.92, "source": "openai_financials", "status": "Reported private audited documents", "scope": "Entire company; R&D not solely training; gross profit not cash flow" }, { "id": "minimax_h1", "name": "MiniMax", "period": "H1 2026", "currency": "USD", "unit": "millions", "revenue": 116.573, "cost_of_revenue": 95.76, "rd": 296.87, "selling_marketing": 26.973, "general_administrative": 30.23, "reported_net_loss": 357.997, "adjusted_net_loss": 293, "source": "minimax", "status": "Public unaudited interim results", "scope": "Includes text, video, speech and consumer products" }, { "id": "zai_h1", "name": "Z.ai / Zhipu", "period": "H1 2026", "currency": "RMB", "unit": "millions", "revenue": 953.892, "cost_of_revenue": 702.281, "reported_gross_profit": 251.611, "rd": 2131.171, "reported_net_loss": 2071.992, "source": "zai", "status": "Public unaudited interim results", "scope": "Retain RMB; no foreign-exchange assumption" }, { "id": "xai_q2", "name": "SpaceX AI segment", "period": "Q2 2026", "currency": "USD", "unit": "billions", "revenue": 2.561, "cost_of_revenue": 1.106, "rd": 2.178, "sga": 0.532, "restructuring": 0.002, "reported_operating_loss": 1.257, "capex": 15.828, "source": "spacex", "status": "Public unaudited SEC 10-Q", "scope": "Includes Grok, X advertising, licensing and cloud infrastructure" } ], "parent_cash_flows": [ { "name": "Microsoft", "period": "Year ended June 2026", "operating_cash_flow": 182.935, "cash_capex": 115.948, "source": "microsoft", "definition": "CFO less cash additions to PPE; no finance-lease principal deduction" }, { "name": "Alphabet", "period": "TTM ended June 2026", "operating_cash_flow": 185.675, "cash_capex": 132.402, "source": "alphabet", "definition": "Company-reported FCF" }, { "name": "Amazon", "period": "TTM ended June 2026", "operating_cash_flow": 161.403, "cash_capex": 169.007, "source": "amazon", "definition": "Company-reported FCF; PPE net of sales and incentives" }, { "name": "Meta", "period": "Q2 2026", "operating_cash_flow": 31.862, "cash_capex": 30.116, "lease_principal": 0.962, "source": "meta", "definition": "Company FCF subtracts finance-lease principal and cash PPE" }, { "name": "SpaceX (all segments)", "period": "H1 2026", "operating_cash_flow": 3.466, "cash_capex": 28.476, "source": "spacex", "definition": "Simple CFO minus gross cash PPE; excludes 1.195B rebates, 0.020B capitalized interest and 0.173B lease principal" }, { "name": "CoreWeave", "period": "Q2 2026", "operating_cash_flow": 0.679, "cash_capex": 6.422, "source": "coreweave", "definition": "CFO minus cash PPE including capitalized software; not company-defined FCF" } ], "private_lab_updates": { "openai_monthly_revenue_march_2026": 2, "openai_annualized_revenue_august_2026_lower_bound": 40, "openai_march_committed_funding": 122, "anthropic_may_annualized_revenue": 47, "anthropic_may_funding": 65, "anthropic_profit_report": "Reuters relays FT report of expected positive adjusted operating income for second consecutive quarter; Reuters could not independently verify. Above-80% margin excludes distribution sharing and training." }, "serving": { "model": "Llama 3.1 70B Instruct", "benchmark_source": "nim_performance", "benchmark_version": "NIM 1.3.0; FP8 TP4", "gpus": 4, "gpu": "H100 80GB", "input_tokens": 500, "output_tokens": 2000, "concurrency": 50, "output_tokens_per_second": 2868.22, "time_to_first_token_ms": 564.17, "inter_token_latency_ms": 17.14, "rental_usd_per_gpu_hour": 4.09, "rental_source": "lambda", "rental_basis": "Public four-H100-SXM instance price per GPU-hour, 14 September 2026, excluding tax", "realized_capacity_fractions": [ 0.3, 0.6, 0.9 ], "limits": "Matched-workload rental sensitivity, not rerun benchmark or proprietary frontier-model estimate. Realization factor represents paid fleet time not converted into measured throughput, additional to measured concurrency. CPU/RAM included in rental; service overhead and R&D excluded.", "price_scenarios": [ { "input_per_million": 3, "output_per_million": 15 }, { "input_per_million": 0.2, "output_per_million": 0.4 } ], "workflow": { "mean_calls_per_attempt": 1.5, "successful_attempt_fraction": 0.8, "status": "Assumption, not measured" } }, "deepseek_inference": { "source": "deepseek_serving", "period": "27-28 February 2025; 24 hours UTC+8", "average_nodes": 226.75, "gpus_per_node": 8, "assumed_usd_per_gpu_hour": 2, "input_tokens_billions": 608, "cached_input_tokens_billions": 342, "output_tokens_billions": 168, "theoretical_daily_revenue_usd": 562027, "limits": "Not actual revenue: prices free and paid V3/R1 usage at R1 list rates. Company said actual receipts substantially lower." }, "training": { "deepseek_v3_gpu_hours": 2788000, "deepseek_v3_assumed_gpu_hour_usd": 2, "llama_405b_gpu_hours": 30840000, "llama_rental_equivalent_usd_per_gpu_hour": 3.99, "cluster_gpus": [ 50000, 100000 ], "cluster_paid_hours": 4380, "cluster_scenario_usd_per_gpu_hour": 4, "limits": "Published completed-run hours are not full development. Llama repriced at current retail rate, not historical Meta bill. Cluster cases are assumed paid capacity, not disclosed runs." }, "sources": { "openai_financials": { "publisher": "Ed Zitron / Where's Your Ed At", "title": "Exclusive: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, With Spending Hitting $34 Billion", "date": "2026-06-15", "url": "https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/", "evidence": "2025 revenue, cost of revenue, R&D and other operating expenses", "access": "Full direct reporting read; underlying private audited statements not public. Linked FT corroboration paywalled." }, "openai_funding": { "publisher": "OpenAI", "title": "OpenAI raises $122 billion to accelerate the next phase of AI", "date": "2026-03-31", "url": "https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/", "evidence": "Company-reported monthly revenue and committed capital", "access": "Public announcement, not audited statements" }, "openai_run_rate": { "publisher": "Bloomberg, syndicated by Yahoo Finance", "title": "OpenAI's Revenue Run Rate Tops $40 Billion Ahead of IPO", "date": "2026-08-13", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/openai-revenue-run-rate-tops-213604019.html", "evidence": "Reported annualized revenue above $40B", "access": "Indexed article lead available; full article not retrieved. The $40B figure is also reported in the accessible Axios August 17 article." }, "axios_confirmation": { "publisher": "Madison Mills / Axios", "title": "Anthropic's revenue run rate reportedly surpasses $65 billion pre-IPO", "date": "2026-08-17", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/08/17/anthropic-revenue-run-rate-ipo-openai", "evidence": "Cross-check of reported OpenAI $40B run rate", "access": "Full article read; used only to cross-check this figure" }, "anthropic_funding": { "publisher": "Anthropic", "title": "Anthropic raises $65B in Series H funding at $965B post-money valuation", "date": "2026-05-28", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h", "evidence": "$47B revenue run rate and financing; round includes previously committed investment", "access": "Public primary source" }, "anthropic_profit": { "publisher": "Sathvi G Bhat / Reuters, carried by MarketScreener", "title": "Anthropic tells investors it will be profitable for second straight quarter, FT reports", "date": "2026-09-13", "url": "https://au.marketscreener.com/news/anthropic-tells-investors-it-will-be-profitable-for-second-straight-quarter-ft-reports-ce785bdcd981fe26", "evidence": "Reported adjusted operating profitability; above-80% margin excludes distribution sharing and training", "access": "Full Reuters dispatch read; Reuters could not independently verify FT reporting; original FT article paywalled" }, "minimax": { "publisher": "MiniMax Group", "title": "Interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026", "date": "2026-08-26", "url": "https://file.cdn.minimax.io/public/586c7995-cab1-41b5-9178-c06685b32c88.pdf", "evidence": "Pages 6-8, 12, 14: P&L, research costs, liquidity and balance sheet", "access": "Public 21-page announcement from investor relations; unaudited; full cash-flow statement absent" }, "zai": { "publisher": "Z.AI Co., Ltd. / HKEX", "title": "Interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026 (Chinese)", "date": "2026-08-31", "url": "https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0831/2026083101540_c.pdf", "evidence": "Page 1 financial summary; revenue, gross profit and R&D in RMB thousands", "access": "Public unaudited announcement; Chinese labels translated" }, "spacex": { "publisher": "Space Exploration Technologies Corp. / SEC", "title": "Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026", "date": "2026-08", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026052535/spcx-20260630.htm", "evidence": "Note 18 segment results; consolidated cash flows; definition of AI segment costs", "access": "Public unaudited filing; AI segment includes X and cloud infrastructure" }, "microsoft": { "publisher": "Microsoft", "title": "FY26 Q4 earnings press release and financial statements", "date": "2026-07-29", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2026-q4/press-release-webcast", "evidence": "Annual CFO and cash additions to PPE", "access": "Public primary source" }, "microsoft_openai": { "publisher": "Microsoft / SEC", "title": "Form 10-K, year ended 30 June 2026", "date": "2026-07", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/msft-20260630.htm", "evidence": "$24.1B OpenAI commercial revenue and $6.0B receivable", "access": "Exact SEC-indexed disclosure read; full-page fetch failed" }, "alphabet": { "publisher": "Alphabet / SEC", "title": "Second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Exhibit 99.1", "date": "2026-07-22", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000066/googexhibit991q22026.htm", "evidence": "TTM CFO and cash PPE; Q2 capex and shared AI research", "access": "Public primary source" }, "amazon": { "publisher": "Amazon", "title": "Amazon.com announces second-quarter results", "date": "2026-07", "url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/", "evidence": "TTM CFO, net PPE investment and reported FCF", "access": "Public primary source" }, "meta": { "publisher": "Meta Platforms", "title": "Meta reports second-quarter 2026 results", "date": "2026-07", "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/", "evidence": "Q2 CFO, cash PPE, finance-lease principal and FCF", "access": "Public primary source" }, "coreweave": { "publisher": "CoreWeave", "title": "CoreWeave reports strong second-quarter 2026 results", "date": "2026-08-11", "url": "https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Reports-Strong-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx", "evidence": "Revenue, EBITDA reconciliation, interest, depreciation and cash flows", "access": "Public primary source" }, "deepseek_training": { "publisher": "DeepSeek-AI", "title": "DeepSeek-V3 Technical Report, version 2", "date": "2025-02", "url": "https://arxiv.org/html/2412.19437v2", "evidence": "Table 1: 2.788M H800 hours at assumed $2/hour; excludes prior research and ablations", "access": "Public primary source" }, "deepseek_serving": { "publisher": "DeepSeek-AI", "title": "Day 6: DeepSeek-V3/R1 Inference System Overview", "date": "2025-03-01", "url": "https://github.com/deepseek-ai/open-infra-index/blob/main/202502OpenSourceWeek/day_6_one_more_thing_deepseekV3R1_inference_system_overview.md", "evidence": "One-day production fleet, tokens, rental-equivalent cost and hypothetical revenue", "access": "First-party engineering disclosure, not audited financials" }, "nim_performance": { "publisher": "NVIDIA", "title": "NIM LLMs Benchmarking: Performance, Llama 3.1 70B, NIM 1.3.0", "date": "Undated benchmark table; accessed 2026-09-14", "url": "https://docs.nvidia.com/nim/benchmarking/llm/1.0.0/performance.html", "evidence": "4 H100 FP8 TP4, 500 input / 2000 output, concurrency 50, 2868.22 output tokens/s", "access": "Public vendor benchmark; not reproduced locally" }, "nim_metrics": { "publisher": "NVIDIA", "title": "NIM LLMs Benchmarking: Metrics", "date": "2026-04-01", "url": "https://docs.nvidia.com/nim/benchmarking/llm/1.0.0/metrics.html", "evidence": "Output throughput definition and latency/concurrency tradeoff", "access": "Public primary source" }, "lambda": { "publisher": "Lambda", "title": "GPU instances and public on-demand pricing", "date": "Accessed 2026-09-14", "url": "https://lambda.ai/instances", "evidence": "Four H100: $4.09/GPU-hour; eight H100: $3.99/GPU-hour", "access": "Public retail rates excluding tax, not negotiated lab prices" }, "llama_training": { "publisher": "Meta", "title": "Llama 3.1 model card", "date": "2024-07-23", "url": "https://github.com/meta-llama/llama-models/blob/main/models/llama3_1/MODEL_CARD.md", "evidence": "405B training used 30.84M H100 GPU-hours", "access": "Public primary source" }, "epoch": { "publisher": "Ben Cottier et al. / Epoch AI", "title": "How much does it cost to train frontier AI models?", "date": "2024-06-03", "url": "https://epoch.ai/publications/how-much-does-it-cost-to-train-frontier-ai-models", "evidence": "Training versus development; hardware, staff, energy and rental versus amortized cost", "access": "Original research; historical estimates and forecasts, not current invoices" }, "mistral": { "publisher": "Le Monde", "title": "Mistral AI raises \u20ac3 billion in response to doubts over its strategic direction", "date": "2026-09-08", "url": "https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2026/09/08/mistral-ai-raises-3-billion-in-response-to-doubts-over-its-strategic-direction_6757278_19.html", "evidence": "Spokesperson explanation of financing infrastructure and research; \u20ac1B 2026 revenue expectation", "access": "Indexed excerpt with direct company comments; no comparable financial statements" } } }